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Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Demografi Indonesia dengan China di Masa Lalu : Berkah atau Petaka?

22 Mei 2023
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Oleh: Muhammad Farrel, Mahasiswa Administrasi Publik Universitas Airlangga

Pertumbuhan Populasi Penduduk Indonesia yang semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun berpotensi membawa ancaman besar pada sektor kependudukan. Populasi penduduk dengan jumlah yang besar tentunya memperbesar permintaan kebutuhan pokok sehinga suplai kebutuhan pokok menipis. Permintaan penduduk akan kebutuhan pokok seperti makanan dan minuman, tempat tinggal, transportasi, lapangan kerja, dan lainnya akan semakin meningkat. Apabila tidak dilakukan penanganan melalui cara yang benar, kondisi demand and supply tersebut tentu tidak dapat menopang kondisi populasi yang semakin meningkat di Indonesia. Tentu kondisi yang dialami Indonesia juga telah dialami oleh banyak negara di dunia, salah satunya adalah China.


China merupakan salah satu negara yang pernah merasakan dampak negatif dari jumlah penduduk yang tinggi. Pada tahun 1959 – 1961, China pernah mengalami paceklik yang dikenal sebagai paceklik terparah dan salah satu musibah buatan manusia terparah yang pernah terjadi di sejarah manusia. Beberapa peneliti bahkan memasukkan tahun 1958 atau 1962 ke dalam periode paceklik tersebut. Paceklik China ini diestimasi menyebabkan kematian yang berkisar antara 15 hingga 55 juta jiwa akibat kelaparan. Provinsi – provinsi yang mempunyai kematian terparah yakni Anhui (18%), Chongqing(15%), Sichuan (13%), Guizhou (11%), dan Hunan (8%). Meskipun tidak terdapat laporan resmi, terdapat rumor yang beredar bahwa terjadi praktek kanibalisme pada saat paceklik. Masyarakat hanya dapat memakan apa yang ada di sekitarnya seperti tanah, hewan peliharaan, mencuri dan membunuh sesama bahkan memakan bangkai orang lain.

Paceklik di China ini terjadi akibat banyak faktor yang dapat dikelompokkan menjadi dua faktor besar. Pertama, pembuat kebijakan serta eksekutor yang tidak mumpuni dalam membuat dan melaksanakan kebijakannya sendiri. Paceklik di China ini awalnya dimulai dari kebijakan “The Great Leap Forward” dari Ketua Partai Komunis China, Mao Zedong. Kebijakan ini berusaha mengubah struktur negara dari negara agraris menjadi negara industri melalui People’s Commune, yaitu sebuah perkumpulan dari banyak individu maupun keluarga yang hidup bersama dan bekerja bersama sehingga mereka tidak lagi memikirkan mengenai uang maupun makanan. Meskipun secara teori terdengar manis, namun fakta sejarah mengatakan implementasi kebijakan ini sangatlah sulit. Pemerintahan Mao yang mengandalkan aspek kekuasaan serta teror membuat pejabat daerah berusaha menutupi kesalahan – kesalahannya, atau bahkan kesalahan dari kebijakan Mao dengan sedemikian rupa sehingga Mao menganggap kebijakannya berjalan dengan lancar. Salah satu upaya pejabat daerah yaitu memprioritaskan penyetoran hasil kerja kepada atasan untuk menjaga reputasi politiknya. Hal ini menyebabkan pembagian hasil kerja serta pangan kepada masyarakat tidak fleksibel dan tidak terdistribusi merata. Faktor kedua yakni produksi besi yang diprioritaskan dibanding hasil panen. Prioritas ini menyebabkan pengalihan pekerja di bidang agrikultur ke bidang industri sehingga produksi agrikultur berkurang. Akan tetapi, kondisi ini tidak disadari oleh para petinggi di pemerintahan China. Hal ini disebabkan oleh pelaporan palsu yang sangat massal akibat ketakutan pejabat daerah terhadap pemerintahan pusat. Akhirnya, pemerintah China mengira suplai pangan yang dimiliki negara sudah cukup bahkan surplus, meskipun kenyataan di lapangan mengatakan sebaliknya. Keterbatasan pasokan pangan ditambah dengan besarnya populasi China menjadi penyebab banyaknya kematian yang terjadi di musibah paceklik ini.


Kondisi populasi penduduk serupa yang dialami China pada zaman dahulu dapat ditemukan di mayoritas negara berkembang, khususnya Indonesia. Berdasarkan sensus penduduk tahun 2020, Indonesia memiliki jumlah populasi sebesar 270,2 juta jiwa. Angka ini menunjukkan peningkatan apabila dibandingkan dengan sensus penduduk 2010 yakni 237,64 juta jiwa. Populasi di Indonesia diproyeksikan akan terus bertambah menjadi 305 juta jiwa pada tahun 2035. 56% dari populasi tersebut tinggal di Pulau Jawa, yang merupakan pulau terpadat di dunia. Di ranking negara berdasarkan jumlah penduduk, Indonesia menempati posisi keempat penduduk terbanyak di dunia.


Kondisi jumlah penduduk Indonesia yang banyak dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor yakni faktor ekonomi, faktor sosial, dan faktor budaya. Dalam faktor ekonomi, semakin tinggi pendapatan sebuah keluarga, maka akan semakin tinggi tingkat fertilitasnya. Hal ini dikarenakan keluarga tersebut menganggap mampu memenuhi kebutuhan hidup serta investasi pendidikan pada anak. Faktor sosial mengungkapkan bahwa tingkat pendidikan perempuan menunjukkan adanya hubungan negatif antara pendidikan dengan tingkat fertilitas. Artinya, perempuan dengan pendidikan lebih tinggi cenderung menunda pernikahan dan menggunakan alat kontrasepsi daripada perempuan yang berpendidikan rendah (Ariho dkk., 2018) dan Mutwiri (2019). Sedangkan faktor budaya yang dimaksud adalah penyebab pertumbuhan penduduk akibat budaya yang ada di masyarakat. Suku Melayu misalnya, memiliki budaya
atau pandangan bahwa anak merupakan sumber rejeki dan amanah dari Maha pencipta, sumber pendapatan di masa tua, dan meningkatkan status sosial keluarga.


Maka diperlukan langkah – langkah preventif agar kondisi tingginya jumlah penduduk Indonesia tidak memberikan malapetaka, justru mengantarkan Indonesia dalam mewujudkan cita – cita negara. Alternatif solusi yang penulis merasa dapat ditempuh Pemerintah dalam memanfaatkan kondisi kependudukan Indonesia saat ini seperti meningkatkan kualitas SDM masyarakat, mengontrol tingkat kelahiran dan memperluas lapangan kerja. Pengontrolan tingkat kelahiran masyarakat sebenarnya merupakan tindakan respon terhadap kondisi kependudukan saat ini agar semakin stabil di masa depan. Dengan dasar tersebut penulis ingin memberi fokus pada pendekatan yang memang bisa berdampak di kondisi saat ini, yakni SDM dan lapangan kerja.


Peningkatan SDM dan perluasan lapangan kerja juga merupakan dua hal yang saling berkaitan. Semakin baik SDM, maka akan semakin luas pula lapangan kerja yang dapat dimasuki. Oleh karena itu, Penulis ingin memberi fokus pada peningkatan kualitas SDM Indonesia pada tulisan ini. Pemberian fokus ini didasari pada pernyataan Deputi Bidang Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Kemanusiaan – Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI), Tri Nuke Pudjiastuti, dalam seminar “Daya Saing Penduduk Menuju Ketahanan Bangsa” yakni meskipun data menunjukkan 70% dari total jumlah penduduk Indonesia adalah usia angkatan kerja, namun kualitasnya yang masih relatif rendah berdampak buruk pada pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia.

Menurut Nuke, hal ini berbahaya karena era globalisasi memiliki tuntutan tinggi bagi tenaga kerja. Maka apabila masyarakat usia angkatan kerja tidak mampu bersaing, maka sulit bagi mereka untuk mendapat pekerjaan. Hal ini akan berdampak pada perekonomian yang terganggu serta kemiskinan yang meningkat sejalan dengan rendahnya kualitas pendidikan usia angkatan kerja. Hal serupa disampaikan Kepala Prodi S2 Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Ketenagakerjaan, Universitas Indonesia di seminar yang sama. Menurutnya pemerintah harus fokus menyelesaikan permasalahan peningkatan kompetensi yang relevan dengan permintaan dunia kerja apabila Indonesia ingin mendapat keuntungan dari bonus demografi yang dimiliki.

Editor: Tim Redaksi

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